Judith Tyson, August 2017
Zimbabwe has suffered from economic decline in the recent past, with a 60% reduction in its gross domestic product over the past two decades. There have been multiple acute crises and a deep structural regression in its economy. This has included deindustrialisation with degradation of capital stock and low capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. The paper on ‘A Roadmap for Economic Transformation’ argues that the most viable is a ‘single sector, single agent’ approach – whereby transformation is focused on a single sector with high potential and led by a single reformist agent within government – and this could ‘kick-start’ change.
Judith Tyson, August 2017
David Booth, Linda Calabrese and Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, July 2017
One of the keys to economic transformation across Africa today is a greater role for employment-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing. After taking due account of differences in contexts and time periods, international experience – especially in Asia but also in Africa-region leaders such as Mauritius – points to employment-intensive manufacturing as a crucial and indispensable step in the transition from poverty to development.
Phyllis Papadavid and Judith Tyson, June 2017
Since the downturn in global commodity prices in 2015, sub-Saharan Africa’s macroeconomic conditions have deteriorated, with 2016 seeing the worst economic growth in more than two decades. To maintain progress in economic transformation, employment-intensive and higher-productivity sectors need to be developed. Manufacturing – including agricultural processing – offers this opportunity, including through participation in regional and global value chains. In order for the sector to get the investment it needs, the promotion and mobilising of private financing will be crucial.
Linda Calabrese, Phyllis Papadavid and Judith Tyson, June 2017
Rwanda is one of Africa’s “rising stars”. The country’s economy has seen solid rates of economic growth since the civil conflict in the mid-1990s. Strength in investment flows has followed in the path of this macroeconomic and institutional stability. As this paper highlights, a large part of Rwanda’s success has been the result of proactive policies undertaken by the government of Rwanda in facilitating a good domestic investment climate, which have been conducive to strong rates of growth in FDI into the economy.
Anzetse Were, Dirk Willem te Velde and Gituro Wainaina, June 2017
Developed by SET in partnership with the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), this booklet addresses Kenya’s current economic predicament and makes the case for political and financial investment in manufacturing. The central 10-point policy plan lays out seven policies and regulations that should be enacted to create a conducive environment for manufacturing to flourish, and three further suggestions for how to implement them in practice.
Stephen Gelb, Linda Calabrese and Xiaoyang Tang, March 2017, June 2017
The paper and briefing reviews the foreign (Chinese) presence in four sectors in Myanmar and its impact on economic transformation. Significant positive effects include employment and exports in garments, local enterprise development and downstream user costs in construction (and infrastructure), and exports, technology transfer and product market competition in agriculture and agro-processing and finally makes a number of policy recommendations for UK DFID.
Margaret McMillan, John Page, David Booth and Dirk Willem te Velde, March 2017
This approach paper seeks to define economic transformation, offers an approach to measuring progress towards it, and examines case studies from African and Asian economies where transformative policies have been successful to greater and lesser extents. The paper concludes by presenting a multi-disciplinary approach to identifying opportunities, diagnosing constraints and mapping out realistic policy options for countries to use to turn their economic growth into genuine transformation.
Edited by Bernard Hoekman and Dirk Willem te Velde, February 2017
Services play a vital role in economic transformation and job creation in poor countries, but the effects are different from those in agriculture or manufacturing. While much of the discussion on economic transformation centres on transforming agriculture and moving into manufacturing, services are an under-explored component of economic transformation strategies.
This set of essays analyses the role of services, and especially trade in services, in economic transformation.
Neil Balchin, Bernard Hoekman, Hope Martin, Maximiliano Mendez-Parra, Phyllis Papadavid, David Primack and Dirk Willem te Velde, November 2016
While much of the debate on economic transformation centres around transforming agriculture and moving into manufacturing, the potential of services is often left unexplored. It is crucially important for policy-makers in low-income countries, many of whom may not regard services, or trade in services, as a prime focus of action on economic transformation. This paper explores how policies both directly and indirectly affecting trade in services can have a major impact in terms of increasing the contribution of services to economic transformation.
Milan Brahmbhatt, Russell Bishop, Xiao Zhao, Alberto Lemma, Ilmi Granoff, Nick Godfrey and Dirk Willem te Velde, November 2016
Africa’s “Growth Miracle” in the 21st century has reversed a long standing narrative of pessimism about the region. It has emboldened hope for the future. GDP growth reached around 5% annually from 2001-2014. Rates of extreme poverty fell substantially.
Yet big challenges remain.
Neil Balchin, Tim Kelsall, Blandina Kilama, Alberto Lemma, Max Mendez-Parra, Donald Mmari, Dirk Willem te Velde, Sam Wangwe, Leah Worrall, May 2016
The Government of Tanzania launched the second Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP II) (2016/17-2021/22) in June 2016, focusing on the theme Nurturing Industrialisation for Economic Transformation and Human Development. This study informed the preparation of FYDP II.
Dirk Willem te Velde, David Booth, Danny Leipziger and Ebere Uneze, May 2016
Nigeria has enjoyed fast economic growth over the past decade but has seen low-quality growth. Now, with oil prices down significantly, and weak growth, new areas of economic growth need to be identified. Business-as-usual will not safeguard productive jobs for the future or reduce poverty significantly. Promoting quality growth and economic transformation is crucial. This paper discusses the issues, drawing on economic analysis and political-economy assessment.
Neil Balchin, Stephen Gelb, Jane Kennan, Hope Martin, Dirk Willem te Velde and Carolin Williams, March 2016
Strong growth in the African region, rebalancing and rising wages in China, and improvements in the policy and institutional context provide a unique opportunity that African countries can use to attract investment in higher value-added, export-led manufacturing. This paper describes how production, employment, trade and FDI in the manufacturing sectors in nine selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has increased and identifies opportunities for promising sectors.
Louise Fox, March 2016. The government of Tanzania is currently preparing its next Five Year Development Plan (FYDP II). Ensuring women benefit from the development processes envisaged in the plan is instrumental to achieving its objectives. Analysis of recent data on employment and time use shows women have benefited from a decade of economic transformation in Tanzania. This paper discusses many issues, including how they have gained access to new employment opportunities in higher-productivity sectors such as manufacturing, trade and hotel and food services and the expansion of public services has increased the education of women in in the labour force.
Yaw Ansu, David Booth, Tim Kelsall and Dirk Willem te Velde, March 2016. Achieving a pattern of economic growth where productivity, export competitiveness and employment are continuously increased calls for an active search for solutions to numerous specific problems currently blocking or delaying needed investments. This paper looks at how to establish a strategic relationship between government and private sector actors that makes it possible to address these problems without repeating the errors that derailed transformational ventures in the past.
Joe Amoako-Tuffour, Neil Balchin, Linda Calabrese and Max Mendez-Parra, March 2016
Trade facilitation can stimulate economic transformation in Africa by raising exports, supporting export diversification, reallocating resources to more productive activities, improving access to cheaper and better-quality imported inputs and enabling participation in value chains. Many African regions have begun to formulate regional approaches to trade facilitation, and there are important examples of particular approaches working well.
Yaw Ansu, Margaret McMillan, John Page and Dirk Willem te Velde, March 2016.
Industrialisation, particularly the expansion and increased sophistication of manufacturing production and exports, and also the expansion of manufacturing employment, remains an essential part of Africa’s economic transformation. Unfortunately, manufacturing as a share of gross domestic product has declined over the past few decades in most African countries, even though in absolute terms it is growing.
Anupam Khanna, Phyllis Papadavid, Judith Tyson and Dirk Willem te Velde, February 2016.
Much of the debate on economic transformation in low-income countries (LICs) has centred on moving out of agriculture and into manufacturing, but this fails to appreciate the role services can play in driving growth in developing countries. This paper examines the role of services in economic transformation, by discussing the main conceptual issues and applying these to the case study of Kenya. The analysis suggests we need to update our traditional, often negative, views on the role of services in economic transformation.
Neil Balchin, Claire Mason, Kasper Vrolijk and Leah Worrall, 2015. While the broad definition of economic transformation is relatively consistent across actors in the economic transformation literature, the existing research on policies and strategies designed to support economic transformation varies across different types of country stakeholders and across country contexts. In this paper we conduct a stocktake of the literature on economic transformation in order to determine pre-existing actor discourse on the topic.
Danny Leipziger, November 2015. This paper examines the key lessons for successful economic transformation based on experiences, both positive and negative, of large economies in East Asia and Latin America. As a general guide, it can be noted that countries that have successfully managed major economic transformations have done so with consistent, sustained and coordinated policies across a number of key markets. This paper highlights a number of areas for policymakers to consider in designing their own transformative policies.
Louise Fox, February 2016.
Economic transformation is defined as the movement of resources (factors of production) to high productivity activities, both within and between sectors. It encompasses both the process of structural change (movement of resources between sectors) and within sector labour productivity improvements. Economic transformation is essential for improving the quality of growth.
Marie-Agnes Jouanjean, Max Mendez-Parra and Dirk Willem te Velde, July 2015.
Trade has historically played a crucial role in the debate on economic transformation (ET), but the transmission mechanisms of different types of trade policies have not always been clearly articulated and empirical evidence is lacking in specific areas.
Tang Xiaoyang, July 2015.
Africa is no longer satisfied with growth that is limited to traditional economic sectors, such as agriculture or mining. Policy-makers aiming to bring in more manufacturing, technology and innovations to the continent are attaching more importance to structural transformation in their vision of development.
Gagan Thapa and Yurendra Basnett, May 2015.
Key messages from the brief include that hydropower can help Nepal decouple growth from rising carbon emissions and propel economic transformation. To do so will require creating agglomeration effects around hydropower development. Nepal should consider investing hydropower revenue to ensure that the country stays on a low-carbon economic growth pathway; to build the much needed transport infrastructure and power it with electricity; and to develop industries.
Dirk Willem te Velde, David Booth, Danny Leipziger and Ebere Uneze, May 2015
Nigeria’s recent economic growth has not brought about economic transformation. The new administration has an opportunity to address new areas of economic growth and the briefing sets about the six key aspects of policy formulation and implementation from the relevant international experience. One clear conclusion is the importance of emphasising global competitiveness, even in a large economy with a growing domestic market.