Lorena Alcázar Valdivia, Debapriya Bhattacharya, Andrea Ordóñez, Tausi Kida, Dirk Willem te Velde, April 2020
COVID-19 reached the poorest countries with a time lag but now they are facing multiple shocks. Commodity prices, especially oil prices, have fallen steeply, global demand for their products has gone down sharply, tourism receipts have reduced markedly and retail outlets and restaurants are closed, leading to massive global supply chain problems. In addition, the coronavirus has now reached most countries, resulting in lockdowns in developing countries, leading to a further slowdown (some estimate by 2–3% of annual GDP each month). While countries around the world, primarily developed ones, plan for stimulus packages to confront the crisis, many developing countries lack the fiscal space to implement such measures.
Developing countries face additional constraints owing to the level of informality, poverty and refugee numbers. Most poor people cannot afford not to try to engage in economic activities, as they will face starvation otherwise. The poor are often the least resilient to shocks, and if they lose urban jobs they will need to return to rural areas. There are heightened fears of the coronavirus reaching refugee camps. The coronavirus shock will thus hit the poor hardest. Estimates suggest the number of malnourished and acute hungry will double by the end of this year, from 800 million to 1.6 billion and from 130 million to some 260 million, respectively.
Photo: Covid-19 testing. World Bank / Henitsoa Rafalia. Licence: (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)